Clarksons predicts maritime trade volumes to exceed 2019 levels this year
While conceding that major uncertainties remain, Clarkson Research Services predicts that global maritime trade estimates for the year 2021 will not only be back to 2019 levels, but are well on their way to exceeding them.
Clarksons predicts 4.2% growth this year, with maritime trade volumes reaching 12 billion tonnes, 0.5% above 2019 levels.
Clarksons estimated in its latest weekly report that global maritime trade fell -3.6% in 2020 on an annual basis to 11.5 billion tonnes.
In the first weeks of 2021, most segments of non-oil shipping reported high usage levels and high rates.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast the global economy to grow 5.5% this year, which – after falling 3.5% last year – will leave the 2021 economy at 1.8% higher than in 2019. The separation of emerging and developed economies shows that only the former will return to 2019 levels this year, as the IMF expects them to increase by 6.3%, after a decrease of 2, 4% in 2020. Developed economies, on the other hand, are expected to grow. 4.3%, a rate lower than the 4.9% drop in 2020.
A BIMCO report late last month suggested that the 2021 recovery might not bring good news for everyone, with the exact pace of the recovery being determined by the evolution of the pandemic and changes in travel restrictions. and other containment measures.
“As the global economy moves towards its next normal, some of the bright spots that came out of the pandemic year for shipping, including the higher multiplier of trade to GDP, will fade as that spending on goods will drop and consumers will start spending more on services and travel. In addition, there will be a limit to the government’s stimulus packages, which will inevitably slow the pace of the recovery, ”BIMCO suggested last month.